by Dr. Steven Brule 
The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with excitement as Bitcoin (BTC) enters another bullish phase. Many seasoned analysts and enthusiasts are drawing parallels between the current cycle and the legendary 2016-2017 bull market. Among them is the well-known quant analyst PlanB, who believes that Bitcoin is flashing “2017 vibes.” In this article, we will delve into the similarities between the two cycles and explore why now might be the final chance to accumulate BTC below $70,000.
PlanB’s Insights: The 2017 Vibes
PlanB, renowned for his stock-to-flow model, has been vocal about the current bull market cycle resembling the 2017 surge. He recently shared on the social media platform X, where he boasts 1.9 million followers, that Bitcoin is four months into its bull market phase. This observation is based on his chart, which features four red dots signifying this period.
In 2017, Bitcoin was trading around $1,200 at its fourth red dot and then skyrocketed to nearly $20,000 by the end of the year. Today, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,105, and many believe it could experience a similar meteoric rise.
Realized Cost Price Indicator
One of the key metrics PlanB examines is the realized cost price indicator. This metric measures the value of Bitcoin based on the price at which each cohort’s coins were last transacted. PlanB’s analysis includes three variations of this metric: the five-month, two-year, and total realized cost price of BTC.
His chart reveals that Bitcoin’s current price is above all three metrics, indicating strong bullish momentum. This suggests we might be in the final days of Bitcoin trading at its current levels before it potentially breaks above $70,000.
Historical Correlation: Miner Revenue and Price Action
Another compelling aspect of PlanB’s analysis is the historical correlation between Bitcoin miner revenue and price action. Historically, Bitcoin miner revenue tends to recover two to five months after a halving event. Following this recovery, Bitcoin’s price has typically gone “vertical.”
With the latest halving having occurred in 2024, PlanB predicts that Bitcoin could see significant price increases later this year. As miner revenue recovers, it could signal the start of an aggressive upward trend in Bitcoin’s price.
Why This Cycle Feels Like 2016-2017
Early Bull Market Phase: Just like in 2017, Bitcoin is in the early stages of its bull market, with strong indicators suggesting further growth.
Strong On-Chain Metrics: PlanB’s realized cost price indicator shows bullish signals, similar to the metrics observed during the 2016-2017 cycle.
Post-Halving Dynamics: The recovery of miner revenue post-halving is a critical factor that drove Bitcoin’s price surge in 2017 and is expected to do so again in 2024.
Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment is increasingly bullish, reminiscent of the enthusiasm and optimism seen in 2017.
Final Thoughts: The Last Chance Below $70,000?
According to PlanB, this period might be the last opportunity to buy Bitcoin below $70,000. With historical patterns and current metrics aligning closely with the 2016-2017 bull market, investors and enthusiasts are eagerly anticipating a significant price rally.
As we move through 2024, it will be crucial to monitor these indicators and market dynamics. Whether you are a seasoned investor or a newcomer to the world of Bitcoin, understanding these patterns can provide valuable insights into potential market movements.
Stay informed and don’t miss out on the latest updates. Subscribe to our newsletter for real-time alerts and follow us on X, Facebook, and Telegram.
Disclaimer: The above article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The cryptocurrency market is volatile and unpredictable; always conduct your research before investing.
